The April 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 people, marks a disturbing escalation in cross-border militancy.
As public and political pressure in India mounts for a response, the possibility of retaliation whether overt, covert, or hybrid cannot be ruled out. For Pakistan, this moment is not only one of heightened alert, but of strategic foresight.
Rather than assuming that India will follow past patterns, such as surgical strikes or air raids, Pakistan must prepare for a broader spectrum of possible actions, including the use of emerging technologies, asymmetric tools, and psychological signaling.
The following matrix outlines potential Indian responses as a way to map escalation scenarios not as policy prescriptions, but as planning parameters. These scenarios vary in visibility, attribution, and strategic logic. Understanding this evolving toolkit is essential for Pakistan’s calibration of deterrence posture, readiness, and diplomatic engagement. Strategic anticipation, not reaction, must guide the next phase of crisis management.
Option |
Description |
Visibility (1-5) |
Escalation Risk (1-5) |
Novelty (1-5) |
Strategic Rationale |
Covert Ghost Ops |
Unattributed ground or intel-based strikes against alleged militant targets using special forces or proxies. |
1 |
2 |
5 |
Preserves plausible deniability; keeps escalation below threshold while achieving deterrent signaling. |
AI-Assisted Scalpel |
Use of AI-enabled ISR and drone swarms for precision elimination of alleged high-value militant nodes. |
2 |
3 |
5 |
Tech-driven, low-collateral response showcasing capability without deep incursions. |
Maritime Interdiction |
Naval interception of vessels suspected of aiding alleged militant logistics, not a full blockade. |
3 |
4 |
4 |
Applies asymmetric economic and logistical pressure without land warfare. |
Psychological Ops |
Military drills, leaked fake plans, and disinfo campaigns to induce panic and miscalculation among adversaries. |
5 |
2 |
5 |
Manages escalation through perception warfare; shapes adversary behavior without actual strikes. |
Cold Start Lite |
Simultaneous, small-scale incursions across multiple LoC points to overwhelm Pakistani coordination. |
5 |
5 |
3 |
Delivers strong kinetic message under Cold Start logic while keeping it short and sharp. |
Delegated Escalation |
India leverages third-party pressure (e.g., Afghan/Baluch groups) to stretch Pakistan’s internal security bandwidth. |
1 |
3 |
5 |
Strategic outsourcing of pressure while remaining officially uninvolved. |
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