Source: ABC News

Kaiser Tufail 

As with any political party in power, the Indian election of 2019 was critical for the  Bharatya Janata Party (BJP), for it wanted a stronger showing than before. The issues of rising  unemployment, currency  demonetization, farmers’ complaints of low remunerative prices, and, not the least, the persistent insurgency in Kashmir had, however, dented BJP’s prospects considerably. Something had to be done to avert a poor show at the hustings. Pakistan, perceived as India’s perennial nemesis, was the perfect scapegoat which could be accused of supporting the uprising in Muslim-majority Kashmir.

BJP assessed that targeting Pakistan on charges of supporting terror in Kashmir would be fully supported by both sides of the political divide in India. According to the Pew Research Centre’s  2018 and 2019 surveys, a significant majority of the voters considered Pakistan as a “very serious threat” to their country, and terrorism to be a “very big problem.”

On February 14,  2019, a Kashmiri youngster carried out a suicide attack by ramming his car into a police vehicle, killing 40 troops of the Central Police Reserve Force. The attack was in retaliation for the excesses committed by para-military forces, which had tortured and maimed hundreds of young men, and raped scores  of women in a relentless campaign of terror. Instead of reflecting on the causes of the ongoing  insurgency, the Modi government found it opportune to blame Pakistan one more time. Without an iota of evidence to present to the UN or any other world adjudication body regarding involvement of Pakistan in the attack, the Indian government decided to exact revenge on its own. With the election just six weeks away, the timing could not have been more favourable for Prime Minister Modi.

IAF struck a purported terrorist training camp at Jabba, near Balakot town early morning on February 26. Fortuitously for Pakistan, the brazen attack started with a string of failures, which continued embarrassingly throughout the operation. Of the package of ten Mirage 2000Hs which were planned to strike, two aborted on the ground, while four had to abort due to cloudy weather which precluded the use of the electro-optically delivered ‘Crystal Maze’ bombs. The remaining six Mirages delivered their ‘Spice 2000’ bombs from a stand-off range of 40 km; five bombs exploded on a hillside, well away from the target, which was actually a seminary that housed teenage children memorizing the Holy Quran. There was no loss of any life or property.

IAF stood guard on the night of February 26, when PAF’s riposte was expected. Extensive Combat Air Patrols (CAPs) were flown by IAF, with surveillance support from ground radars, as well as an AEWCS aircraft anchored over Adampur. When PAF did not show up till sunrise of February 27, IAF eased off from its highest alert state, and waited for the following night. A pair of Su-30MKI was patrolling near Srinagar, while a pair of Mirage 2000I was patrolling east of Udhampur. PAF’s deception worked splendidly when its strike package of four Mirage 5PA/IIIDAs and two JF-17, duly supported by a big swarm of escorts and patrolling fighters (a mix of F-16A/B and JF-17), cluttered the scopes of IAF’s ground radars at 0920 hours. Working at the rear of the fighter package were PAF’s SAAB Erieye AEWCS aircraft, and the DA-20 Falcon in which electronic warfare wizards sat ready with their arcane tricks.

Two vintage – but still quite capable – Mirage 5PA, each armed with one H-4 stand-off bomb, along with two JF-17, each armed with two Mk-83 Range Extension Kit (REK) bombs, headed towards their respective targets in south-western – Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). Each Mirage 5PA was followed by its communication control aircraft, a dual-seat Mirage IIIDA, which was to steer the H-4 after launch through data link, while the JF-17s’ Mk-83 REK were to be launched in the autonomous ‘fire and forget’ mode. Since the purpose of the mission was essentially to demonstrate that Pakistan had the resolve, as well as the capability of responding in kind, it was decided that there was no compelling need to pick the front door of a brigade commander’s office, or the air shafts of soldiers’ bunkers. General area bombing of open spaces in military garrisons near the Line of Control (LOC) in IIOJK was, therefore, agreed upon. It was expected that this ‘abundance of restraint’  would prevent mass carnage in the Indian military garrisons, which could otherwise lead to a chain of escalatory actions, and spiral into a very dangerous all-out war under a nuclear overhang. When PAF struck the garrisons within 32 hours of IAF’s abortive air strike at Balakot, it came like a ‘shot across the bow’ and had the desired sobering effect on the Indian military commanders.

Meanwhile, the pair of patrolling Su-30s was completely shocked when it was  targeted by an F-16 with an AIM-120 missile at long range. Having survived a direct hit, both Su-30s scampered out of the area, leaving the field to the Mirage 2000 pair. When the ground radar sought to position the Mirages to tackle the F-16s, both terror-stricken Mirage pilots expediently declared fire-control system malfunctions, and also bowed out without a fight. The desperate ground radar control then scrambled two pairs of MiG-21 Bison to tackle the rampaging PAF fighters. It was not long before an F-16 fired an AIM-120 missile at one of the Bisons that were charging in headlong, rather recklessly. The Bison was promptly blown out of the skies; its pilot, Wg Cdr  Abhinandan, was lucky to parachute to safety, and was promptly apprehended by Pak Army soldiers inside Pakistani territory.

While air combat was in progress in the skies, an IAF combat search and rescue Mi-8 helicopter holding in the combat zone was shot down with a Spyder SAM, as the Terminal Air Defence Unit radar at Srinagar took it for a Pakistani UAV. The costly mistake resulted in six aircrew fatalities. For the IAF, it seemed like a morning of endless misfortunes.

India had the initiative, and could have also exploit the element of secrecy and surprise
to its advantage. However, it is quite clear that the operation was flawed in its planning, and entirely disastrous in its execution. Some of the basic planning considerations were flouted: cloudy weather resulted in cancellation of the electrooptical weapons delivery, elevation data fed into the autonomous Spice 2000 bombs was in error, capabilities of the PAF’s BVR air-to-air missiles were not well-known to IAF aircrew, and the state of readiness of PAF was taken lightly. More serious was the failure of IAF’s patrolling fighters to pick up the gauntlet when challenged, allowing PAF fighters to have a free run; it reflected poorly on the morale and training of IAF pilots. Oversight of the operation was faulty at all levels of command, and cannot be put down to bad luck by an air force that claims to be

It is a wonder that despite such a fruitless operation, the Indian media painted it as a great victory. Fabrications knew no bounds when an F-16 was claimed to have been downed by Abhinandan. The Indian pilot had truthfully claimed on TV – while sipping a ‘fantastic’ cup of Pakistani tea – that he was still searching for the target on his radar when he got zapped by an air-launched missile. Apparently, the Bollywood habituated Indian public least bothers about fact-checking, and two years down, continues to revel in the ‘great victory,’ despite a most discomfiting rout. It must be confessed however, that media manipulation was the only success of the  Modi’s government.

The reaction of the international community to India’s brazen aggression against Pakistan was muted, and outright condemnation was absent. The closest any country got to disapproval was a ‘neither here, nor there statement,’ calling all parties to exercise restraint. In an environment where freedom movements are linked to terror – as in Indian occupied Kashmir and Palestine – it is easy for the host governments to justify punitive action against suspected supporters. Pakistan needs to be wary of this reprehensible trend, and needs to be at the diplomatic forefront to quell hostile propaganda by its adversaries, especially India.

Though the failed IAF strike did not bring any concrete dividends, it did open up the possibility for India to repeat such action in future. The mistakes made in planning and execution of 26/27 February 2019 operation are certain to have been remedied, and it would be naïve to believe that India is not raring for a revenge bout. India has not digested the fact that its military options against Pakistan have been thwarted by the latter’s nuclear capability.

To keep an upper hand as a regional player, India is likely to resort to periodic muscle-flexing through so-called ‘surgical strikes’ conducted with air-launched stand-off weapons, which may be the new norm in Indo-Pak conflicts. Pakistani military, especially the quick-reacting PAF, needs to maintain its operational readiness at a cutting edge to deter India from any adventurism in future.

Air Cdre Kaiser Tufail (Retd) is a former fighter pilot and a writer on military affairs.