Jalal Ud Din Kakar
Republican candidate Donald. J. Trump’s stunning victory in the recent U.S. presidential election marks an extraordinary comeback in American history. The former president, who famously refused to concede defeat four years ago and stirred up a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, has defied the odds and weathered the storm of two assassination attempts and a number of legal battles to reclaim the highest office in the land. During his victory speech,he made it clear that “he had no intention of starting a new war.“ This means that his return to power could have significant impacts on both U.S. foreign policy and the dynamics of global politics. Palestine, too, will be affected by a change at the helm in Washington.
To understand what Trump’s return could mean for Palestine, it is important to shed light on his approach towards it in his first term. It was dictated by Trump’s pro-Israel stance. His decision to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem was a major blow for the Palestinians. Most worryingly, Trump’s recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights threw a wrench in the Middle East, further alienating the Palestinians and Arabs. But perhaps the most notable policy decision was the start of the normalization process between Israel and Arab countries, not least the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. These agreements set the stage for major shifts in the Middle Eastern political landscape. However, this faulty, lopsided peace plan all but crumbled on October 7.
One big reason for that was the hitherto impending normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. It was driven by Saudi Arabia’s shifting economic and strategic priorities. With a view to diversifying its sources of power and reducing its reliance on oil, Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) has been searching for new economic and strategic pathways. In 2022, for example, MBS announced designs of a futuristic city called The Line, and he has been pouring billions of dollars into this project. All this has convinced him to tread carefully in his foreign policy, walking a tightrope to balance his ambitions with diplomatic relations. However, the events on and after October 7, typified by Israel’s genocidal approach, have changed things significantly. Today, Riyadh is warming up to its nemesis in Tehran, and therefore, the chances of signing any peace deal with Tel Aviv are very slim. This implies that Trump 2.0 will find it difficult to foist his version of peace and stability in the Middle East. Yet, Trump will try to have his way in the Middle East, which will certainly be more favorable for Israel. This is evidenced by both his campaign promises and the views of his transition team.
Moreover, Trump’s pro-Israel nominations for key positions will not only be heartening for Israel but also go on to encourage Israeli lobbyists that are pushing to get the green light from the incoming Trump administration for settlements’ expansion in the West Bank. By and large, they hope to push this through with their efforts. This push by many in the United States is seen as a stumbling block to a two-state solution. Also, notably, during Trump’s first term in office, he froze millions of dollars in U.S. assistance in health, education, and infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza. This action raised a lot of eyebrows. Moreover, Trump has strong, close ties with Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu. Both share a vision for Israel’s dominance and supremacy in the Middle East. Therefore, Trump’s return to office does not bring with it many good expectations for the Palestinians.
A year after the start of this ongoing round of violence and carnage, the whole of Gaza has been all but pulverized by Israel. All things considered, Netanyahu’s use of brute force has set the stage for further, unremitting violence and chaos. In the past, Trump’s one-sided approach had damaged the Palestinian cause. Therefore, Trump’s victory may further embolden the ultra-religious and conservative political forces within Israel. Concomitantly, it is feared that Trump’s return to the Oval Office might contribute to reopening old wounds, especially because his peace plans promise little for the Palestinians as far as their rightful freedom is concerned. All this means that, for the Palestinians, the path ahead is treacherous to say the least. That being said, Trump’s bid to reduce Washington’s overseas engagements, coupled with his pre-victory discussions with Arab voters, raises a glimmer of hope for the oppressed and occupied Palestinians.
Jalal Ud Din Kakar is a PhD scholar of International Relations in the School of Integrated Social Sciences, and a Research Fellow at the Center for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR), The University of Lahore.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Pakistan Politico.