Source: Quincy Institute
Aizaz Hussain
Two months into his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump finds himself at the epicenter of global politics, which is marred by chaos and uncertainty. While Trump positioned himself as an anti-war leader, there was a great deal of skepticism surrounding his ability to make the global milieu more stable. So far, the skeptics have been proven right.
The fluid situation in Europe is the biggest cause of this uncertainty. Russia attacked Ukraine three years ago when the world was barely surviving COVID-19 and its aftermath. This was yet another step in pushing global affairs further from normalcy. As a result of the war, thousands have lost their lives, many more have been injured, and an even greater number have been displaced in search of peace and safety. The fact is that the Russia-Ukraine war has had far-reaching effects. Changes and disruptions in supply chain routes, coupled with a menu of economic sanctions and tariffs following the attack on Ukraine, have driven up the prices of everyday goods and services. The U.S., not being impervious to this situation, has also been severely affected by inflationary pressures.
An entrepreneur and populist leader, Donald Trump is committed to ending the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. His criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is well known, and now he is preparing to strike a deal with Russia, one that many European nations allege favors Vladimir Putin. Concomitantly, he has time and again demanded that European nations contribute more financially to NATO. Both positions are far from what European policymakers had hoped for. While all stakeholders agree that the war must end, they do not want it to happen on Russia’s terms. There is growing concern that such an outcome would embolden Moscow, weaken NATO’s credibility, and set a dangerous precedent for aggressors around the world. This unease made Europe wary during Trump’s first term in office, too.
On the other hand, the Israel-Palestine conflict predates the Russia-Ukraine war by decades and is perhaps the longest-running conflict in modern history. The conflict has resulted in one of the worst humanitarian crises, displacing countless civilians with no place to call home. President Trump has proposed that neighboring countries take in Palestinian refugees, but even Washington’s closest allies have expressed discomfiture over such proposals. No country is willing to absorb such a large number of refugees. The two-state solution remains the only viable path, offering both Israelis and Palestinians security and stability.
Another major challenge for the new Trump administration is the shifting global order, characterized by China’s rise as an economic and geopolitical powerhouse. As of 2024, China’s real GDP growth rate stands at 4.5%, compared to 2.2% for the U.S. China has also remained the world’s largest manufacturer for over a decade. The previous Trump administration initiated a trade war with China, imposing tariffs on goods and accusing Beijing of breaching intellectual property rights. China, in turn, denied the accusations and retaliated with tariffs on U.S. exports. Beyond trade, tensions have escalated in the South China Sea, a vital route for Chinese exports. These developments have kept the two major powers at odds while forcing the rest of the world to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape.
To counter China’s growing influence, the U.S. has strengthened ties with India. Given its geographic proximity to China and its large economy, India is a strategic partner with somewhat similar comparative advantages to China, particularly in terms of market size and cheap labor. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S. just days after the administration change highlights the closeness of the relationship. The Modi government has shown positive intent, but India is skillfully balancing its global partnerships. It continues to import oil from Russia despite sanctions, remains China’s largest trading partner, and has abstained from condemning Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. Nevertheless, India seems to enjoy a degree of immunity, as evidenced by President Trump’s recent announcement of F-35 jet sales to the Indian Air Force.
The growing ties between New Delhi and Washington are particularly concerning for Pakistan. The country has been grappling with economic and political turmoil for years and urgently needs strong allies to navigate these challenges. Although China remains an “all-weather friend,” Beijing has recently expressed dissatisfaction over issues related to the security and progress of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan is also attempting to strengthen its diplomatic engagements. Turkish President Erdoğan’s visit and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s exchanges with Central Asian leaders signal attempts to maintain regional and global relevance. However, Pakistan’s situation is unlikely to improve unless Islamabad first addresses its internal instability. More troubling is that the country’s leadership has yet to recognize the need for a fundamental shift in its approach to governance and policy.
In sum, President Trump in his second term is already proving to be controversial and unpredictable. His positions towards Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia have sent ripples of uncertainty across the globe. President Trump’s political campaign focusing on “Make America Great Again,” and therefore his decisions in accordance with this slogan will have broader implications for international (in)stability.
China’s rising influence and the deepening of U.S.-India ties are bound to reshape alliances across the world while raising tensions in the coming years. Meanwhile, countries like Pakistan, caught in the crossfire of changing global equations, must prioritize internal stability to remain relevant in the evolving world order. As the Trump administration continues to take bold and unpopular decisions, the world watches with anticipation and concern about what lies ahead.
Aizaz Hussain is a PhD candidate at Sciences Po (Paris) and researches policy and geopolitical issues.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s, and they do not necessarily represent those of Pakistan Politico.
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