Source: CSIS
Nidaa Shahid
Brahmos supersonic cruise missile, a joint venture of India and Russia, came into the limelight on March 9, 2022, when it was fired into Pakistani territory, in what the Indian authorities lamented was an accidental launch. This Indian justification came two days after the incident had already taken place, highlighting the mishandling of a strategic weapon in an environment where both countries are nuclear-armed adversaries. India is now in talks with a number of regional countries like Indonesia and Vietnam to sell them Brahmos missiles. The Philippines has already acquired the missile in question, becoming the first state in the Southeast Asian region to do so. In light of these developments, and keeping in mind the missile incident of 2022, the question of whether the Brahmos missile is a strategic asset or a strategic folly requires deeper reflection.
Following the incident, in March 2022, India launched a unilateral investigation to understand how the so-called accidental launch occurred, completely ignoring Pakistan’s calls for a joint probe since the issue pertained to both countries. Following its inquiry, India sacked three officials, including a Wing Commander, for gross negligence. The Pakistani side deemed the Indian investigation, as well as the subsequent verdict, to be completely unsatisfactory, deficient, and inadequate.
Interestingly, the sacked Indian Air Force (IAF), Wing Commander Abhinav Sharma, has claimed that there are blatant ambiguities in the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for this missile, and that there were gaps in the chain of command, which led to this issue. His claim that he was scapegoated for the failures of others speaks volumes about the standard of safety within the Indian missile command. The Indian Defence Minister of the time did say the SOPs are being reviewed to not only ascertain the reason for the accidental launch but also to prevent any such incident from occurring in the future. However, no such review has come to light. Since the incident was public, any review, if undertaken at a later stage, should have been made public to alleviate fears of such an event occurring again.
Additionally, the IAF statement that the missile combat crew “failed to intervene to prevent the Mobile Autonomous Launcher commander from committing an unsafe act of launching the Combat Missile,” is a deeply troubling one. It reflects a lax attitude towards safety not only among the personnel but also with regard to safety checks of the missile itself, especially if a single missed check can result in its launch into an adversary’s territory.
Pakistan, committed to resolve and responsibility, showed utmost restraint even though India did not acknowledge the incident for 48 hours. However, in a charged environment, such an accident could be misconstrued and countermeasures may be launched by the adversary, leading to escalation. Thus, with more countries looking to acquire these systems, continued silence from India on whether the issue has been suitably addressed raises many a question.
The Philippines, which has already acquired this missile system, does not possess the requisite C4ISR capabilities needed to operationalize it, thus making them purely symbolic, according to Ashley Tellis, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. While other countries seeking to acquire Brahmos missiles, namely Vietnam and Indonesia, may possess the requisite C4ISR for operationalization, keeping the above developments in mind, they too must consider this purchase carefully.
Another key concern is regional stability within Southern Asia. Given the complex geopolitical dynamics of this region, the introduction of Brahmos supersonic missile – being supplied by India, a rival of China – is akin to poking a sleeping bear. While there continue to be smaller geopolitical tussles between these states, the addition of an unreliable lethal system may further undermine the fragile stability of the region. Additionally, keeping in mind the history of the Brahmos missile, an unintended accidental launch could be misinterpreted as an intentional act of aggression. The deeply intertwined nature of the tensions in the South China Sea, characterized by frequent military confrontations and sovereignty disputes, may provoke an immediate and forceful response by the adversary.
Given all this, if India intends to continue exporting Brahmos missiles, it must first address the vulnerabilities in its safety protocols. A crucial step would be revising the SOPs, which were inadequate in preventing the accidental firing. If, three years from now, these same SOPs remain unchanged despite promises from the Indian defense minister, it would raise serious concerns—not only about India’s own safety protocols but also its credibility as a supplier of military goods. Further, countries considering the purchase of Brahmos missiles must carefully reconsider their decision, particularly in light of the broader geopolitical dynamics in the South China Sea.
Nidaa Shahid is an Associate Director at Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore. She can be reached at info@casslhr.com
The views expressed in this article are the author’s, and they do not necessarily represent those of Pakistan Politico.
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